Saturday, April 17, 2010

What the NBA Doesn't Want You to Know!!

   Now that the 2010 NBA Playoffs are upon us, I became curious to see the odds of lower seeded teams not only making it into the Finals but also winning the Championship. Stats that you couldn’t find out 20 years ago are now at your fingertips. Although ignorance is bliss, knowledge is power so I let my fingers do the walking and here is what I found out.

   A 1 or 2 seed has made it to the finals 78% of the time (31/40)in the last 20 years. No 5 or 7 seed has made it to the finals in at least over 20 years. As far as winning the finals in the last 20 years, a 1 or 2 seed has won it 80% of the time (16/20). No 4, 5, 7, or 8 seed has won it in at least over 20 years. This means that a 4-8 seed has only a 5% chance of winning the finals; that’s pathetic. So a 4-8 seed has only made it to the finals 3/40 times in the last 20 years which is 8% of the time meaning that there is a 92% chance that a 1,2, or 3 seed will be in the finals; this is overwhelming. So once the regular season ends and you know what seeds the playoff teams are in, you will have a good indicator as to just how much of a chance they have to make it to the finals, let alone win it. Why waste your time watching the first few rounds when in all likelihood it’s going to come down to a 1, 2, or 3 seed playing each other in the finals?!
   So when all is said and done, the first two rounds are a waste of time to watch. Once you get to the Conference Finals it may get a bit more interesting depending what seeds are left. I knew that the better seeds usually won but I had no idea just how frequently this occurs. Knowing this now, I am probably going to wait until the Conference Finals to really pay attention to the NBA Playoffs. The only possible way I would even consider watching the second round is if all 1-4 seeds beat all of their opponents and that is not likely. I won’t waste my time on something that I pretty much know the end result to, anyone doing so would be foolish. If you think that I am the only one who knows then you are sadly mistaken. Believe me, the NBA knows this too but they would probably be foolish to open up their mouths!!
   What it all comes down to is money. The MLB only has 4 teams from the AL & NL respectively, the rest would be a waste. Well, same principle for the NBA. There is no need for the 5-8 seeds to really be in the playoffs considering the stats but more games equals more interest equals more money. What I find funny is that just a few years ago, David Stern decided to not get rid of the first round entirely but to add two games to it, making it a best of seven rather than the best of five that it had been. This is a business after all but I for one will not be fooled!!

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